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Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales


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#1 Xbox-Scene

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Posted 09 October 2007 - 09:29 PM

Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales
Posted by XanTium | October 9 16:29 EST | News Category: (default)
 
From gamasutra.com:


Janco Partners' Mike Hickey estimates 4.4 million Halo 3 units sold in its first week, noting that the figure corresponds to a 67% attach rate to U.S. Xbox 360s and 46% for Europe and the U.S. combined. That's far higher than the 3.3 million units Halo 2 sold in its first three weeks -- a mere 30% attach rate to the U.S. Xbox installed base at the time.

Saying that even anticipating a 20% attach rate for GTA IV was exceedingly conservative, Hickey noted that while it may not reach the 46% rate Halo 3 achieved, even a 30% attach rate would mean first week sales of 6.2 million units -- far above Halo's own.
"If the upcoming release of GTA IV attached at the same rate as Halo 3," said Hickey, "the title could conceivably ship 9.5 million units of game in the first week, producing an astonishing $466 million in sales," concluding that the title, despite the delay, could have a "profound impact" on Take-Two relative to current financial projections.


Full Story: gamasutra.com






#2 noob2modding

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Posted 09 October 2007 - 09:10 PM

I wonder how much money GTA IV would make in sales by calculating both Xbox 360 & PS3 sale.

#3 ILLusions0fGrander

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Posted 09 October 2007 - 09:25 PM

im not one to reserve games, but I'll get this on release day.



#4 miggidy

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Posted 09 October 2007 - 10:36 PM

Same here, I don't plan on reserving this game or even buying it until I see great reviews.
With that said, I am looking forward to this game.
And I hope it sells like crack because Take Two needs a some slack....

#5 CoLD FiRE

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 01:43 AM

umm..in fact I'm not interested in that game but looking at the fanbase it's made, that makes everyone know it's gonna be a big hit

btw, anyone can estimate right! so I think it might surpass Halo 3 in its first week as a total of 360 and PS3 versions but if it was on one console I doubt it'd.


Sorry for my English

#6 Marrvia

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 01:53 AM

I seriously doubt it will sell 6-9 million in the first week. That's insanity. I'm kind of upset that Halo 3 sold as much as it did, because although it is a good game, it is not great, and only great games should sell that much. I think it lowers the standard of games when games don't have to be the best to sell the best.

But I am way more excited about GTA4 than anything I've been excited for in a few years. I already bought mine. But I think it is only going to sell 3 million tops in one week though, which is still MONSTEROUS.

#7 JanoMark

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 02:00 AM

QUOTE(Marrvia @ Oct 9 2007, 08:29 PM) View Post

I seriously doubt it will sell 6-9 million in the first week. That's insanity. I'm kind of upset that Halo 3 sold as much as it did, because although it is a good game, it is not great, and only great games should sell that much. I think it lowers the standard of games when games don't have to be the best to sell the best.

But I am way more excited about GTA4 than anything I've been excited for in a few years. I already bought mine. But I think it is only going to sell 3 million tops in one week though, which is still MONSTEROUS.



Simply because you don't think it's a great game doesn't mean it isn't. Obviously there's a lot of people that think otherwise and say Halo 3 is one of the greatest games out there.

And in my opinion GTA isn't that great at all.

#8 Marrvia

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 02:09 AM

Nah, it's not great at all. It doesn't really provide anything new to the series, it's shorter than the other Halos, the graphics aren't impressive at all, etc. Like I said, it's a good game, and can be very fun at times. But not great.

For a game to be "Great", I think it has to be impressive. Halo 3 isn't impressive, it is just more of the same, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, just not great, and DEFINITELY not one of the best games of all time. I'm sure many would agree with me.

#9 Jagosix

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 03:14 AM

QUOTE(Marrvia @ Oct 10 2007, 01:45 AM) View Post

Nah, it's not great at all. It doesn't really provide anything new to the series, it's shorter than the other Halos, the graphics aren't impressive at all, etc. Like I said, it's a good game, and can be very fun at times. But not great.

For a game to be "Great", I think it has to be impressive. Halo 3 isn't impressive, it is just more of the same, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, just not great, and DEFINITELY not one of the best games of all time. I'm sure many would agree with me.


HFG. Well GTA4 is more or less the SAME game of the previous GTA. So what of it? If you like the game then buy it, If not then rent it. I don't think it's going to outdo HALO3 record of 1 day sales total.

#10 vanxman

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 10:12 AM

Is it just me, or does those figures not quite add up?

"4.4 million Halo 3 units sold in its first week, noting that the figure corresponds to a 67% attach rate to U.S. Xbox 360s and 46% for Europe and the U.S. combined."

Assuming we ONLY have Europe/US to deal with (Japan, Africa, etc is negligible), a 46% attachment rate representing 4.4 million copies would indicate a installed base of 9'565'217-ish units (9'565'217 * 0.46 = 4'400'000-ish).

"...even a 30% attach rate would mean first week sales of 6.2 million units"

Using the same logic as above, a 30% attachment rate representing 6.2 million copies would indicate a installed base of 20'666'666-ish units (20'666'666 * 0.30 = 6'200'000-ish).

Or did I just have too many Jack & Cokes last night???

#11 bucko

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 11:39 AM

Don't jump the gun to fast, I'm betting they include PS3 figures as well, I still believe they are waiting on more PS3's in the market for this, not because of development..

#12 vanxman

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Posted 10 October 2007 - 12:12 PM

QUOTE(bucko @ Oct 10 2007, 01:15 PM) View Post

Don't jump the gun to fast, I'm betting they include PS3 figures as well, I still believe they are waiting on more PS3's in the market for this, not because of development..


Hmmm... Good point. Maybe their figures are for ALL systems, whereas the Halo 3 figures were 360 only (obviously).

Still, the Halo 3 figures seems to be based on a much lower than claimed (by MS) installed base...

Whatever!

#13 0794

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Posted 14 October 2007 - 06:53 AM

it makes no sense to use attach rate of a game to estimate sales so these numbers are worse than even pure speculation...




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