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The Economy And Your Livelyhood.


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#1 Movax

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Posted 08 July 2008 - 08:03 PM


As many of you may know, there is something going on. Even if you know nothing about the economy, you've seen the increase in price of gas, and likely the price of food has affected you as well.

As a member of this forum, I feel I should share with you what I have learned and what I think you can do to help yourself. First of all, don't ignore this. You should do your research and look into what is going on. Don't fall into the thought process that this is beyond your understanding, or that "they" will never let things get out of control. Things could get very bad at an accelerating rate. You could see your wealth and standard of living plummet very quickly.

The big picture is quite controversial, and I'll gladly expand on it if there is interest. But to sum it up, inflation and oil prices are one way the Federal Reserve is taking what they can from the people of the US. This topic borderlines on conspiracy, so I'll skip this for now.

Even if there is no conspiracy, it cannot be denied that the Fed, along with the US Government have screwed up. The US is in a state of massive debt, the credit market is collapsing and so is the US dollar. It's unlikely (nearly completely impossible) for the US dollar to be saved. It will continue to plummet towards zero in the next few years. Even if polices were put in motion to save the dollar, the economic outlook for the next five to ten years (maybe longer) is VERY grim.

I don't want to make this too long winded, so if there are questions or interest in this topic, I'll post back.

To secure your future, I strongly suggest:

1. If you are in debt, get out as fast as you can.
2. Start saving. Don't buy that new wide screen TV, stop eating out, and buy only what you need to survive. In effect, lower your standard of living as much as possible and save.
3. If you have investments, GET OUT of the US market. Do not invest in anything that is directly tied to the US.
4. If you can invest, invest in commodities, like gold and silver (that historically retain their value). Even food stocks. Be wary of oil, as the price of oil is likely highly manipulated. (Hard to say).


Please post any questions or criticisms.


#2 damam

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Posted 08 July 2008 - 10:05 PM

well i htink your a bit pessimistic. but i do agree that we are in for some really hard times. I still think that we will see some light at the end of this tunnel within 2 - 3 years. Unless we do somthing stupid like over tax the rich, take on nationalized health care, increase the government, etc.

having said that:
my family has replaced all of our trees and plants with stuff that produce berries and fruits in preperation for the hard times. We should be able to start harvesting next year.

#3 lordvader129

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Posted 08 July 2008 - 11:55 PM

QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 8 2008, 11:39 AM) View Post

To secure your future, I strongly suggest:

1. If you are in debt, get out as fast as you can.

as counter intuitive as it may sound inflation is good for those in debt, since the debt is reflected in US dollars if the dollar is devalued the debt similarly becomes less

QUOTE
2. Start saving. Don't buy that new wide screen TV, stop eating out, and buy only what you need to survive. In effect, lower your standard of living as much as possible and save.

saving is pointless if you think the dollar will be worthless in a few years, if this is the case spend it while it can buy something, my great grandparents grew up in the weimar republic in germany, when their parents got paid theyd spend it all that day, because the next day it would be davlued again and you wouldnt be able to buy as much

QUOTE
3. If you have investments, GET OUT of the US market. Do not invest in anything that is directly tied to the US.

actually youd want to avoid investing in things tied to the US dollar not the US itself, so be careful, many foreign economies are tied directly to the US dollar, the following countries currecies are pegged via fixed exchange rate to the US dollar:

Aruban florin
Bahamian dollar
Bahraini dinar
Barbadian dollar
Belize dollar
Belarusian ruble
Bermudian dollar
Cayman Islands dollar
Cuban convertible peso
Djiboutian franc
East Caribbean dollar
Eritrean nakfa
Hong Kong dollar (narrow band)
Jordanian dinar
Lebanese pound
Maldivian rufiyaa
Netherlands Antillean gulden
Omani rial
Qatari riyal
Saudi riyal
United Arab Emirates dirham

QUOTE
4. If you can invest, invest in commodities, like gold and silver (that historically retain their value). Even food stocks. Be wary of oil, as the price of oil is likely highly manipulated. (Hard to say).

if you feel the US economy is going to crash to nil gold and silver wont do you any good unless you plan on leaving the country as soon as possible, instead you want things with practical value, think about it, if your family is starving whats worth more, a pound of gold or a pound of bread?

however, the US is a world economic power, our GDP represents almost a quarter of the entire worlds GDP (not counting the GPD of the above listed countries which are pegged to the US dollar) a US economic crash would be a world economic crash, theres not much youd be able to do about it


anyway, my advice for an economic recession (although it wont be nearly as bad as you predict) is learn trade skills, you have no idea how many thousands of dollars ive saved by doing my own plumbing, electrical, and other home and auto repairs and renovations

and just out of curiosity, how old are you?

#4 Movax

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Posted 09 July 2008 - 05:57 AM

QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Jul 8 2008, 07:31 PM) View Post

as counter intuitive as it may sound inflation is good for those in debt, since the debt is reflected in US dollars if the dollar is devalued the debt similarly becomes less


True, and to some extent it may help those in debt, but as the price of the cost of living increases the ability to continue making payments becomes more difficult.

QUOTE

saving is pointless if you think the dollar will be worthless in a few years, if this is the case spend it while it can buy something, my great grandparents grew up in the weimar republic in germany, when their parents got paid theyd spend it all that day, because the next day it would be davlued again and you wouldnt be able to buy as much


Also true. Saving will help somewhat but if true hyperinflation is coming, it won't do much in the long run. Stocking up on non-perishable foods is a good alternative.

QUOTE
actually youd want to avoid investing in things tied to the US dollar not the US itself, so be careful, many foreign economies are tied directly to the US dollar, the following countries currecies are pegged via fixed exchange rate to the US dollar:


Another good point, but for some of these countries they have the ability to remove that peg. If that happens, the US will be in more trouble. And when I said avoid things tied to the US I didn't just mean in trade, I was reffering to dollar pegs as well.

QUOTE

if you feel the US economy is going to crash to nil gold and silver wont do you any good unless you plan on leaving the country as soon as possible, instead you want things with practical value, think about it, if your family is starving whats worth more, a pound of gold or a pound of bread?


Gold and Silver are real money. They retain their value. If and when the dollar collapses, Gold will still be worth something. If a new currency is established, you'll be able to get a lot more of it with gold purchased when the dollar still had some worth. Of course it's a bit more complicated than that. If things start to accelerate gold will likely take off like it did in '79/80 and turn into speculative hysteria. But even when it corrects you'd likely be better off.

Paper money is not worth anything more than what someone is willing to accept it for. The only thing besides that previous statement that makes fiat currency worth anything is that the government says it is an acceptable as taxation and for payments of debt. Any country that is not forced to accept the US dollar can decide they no longer want to accept it. And that is already happening.

QUOTE

however, the US is a world economic power, our GDP represents almost a quarter of the entire worlds GDP (not counting the GPD of the above listed countries which are pegged to the US dollar) a US economic crash would be a world economic crash...


This is the type of thinking that gets the US in trouble. What is the GDP based on? Lately it's consumption. The US doesn't make anything anymore. Threre is very little productive industry left. Almost all the products consumed in the US are made in another country, and the GDP numbers are based on consumer spending.

Most of this consumer spending in the last few years has come from loans, lines of credit, credit cards - and the big one - home equity. How long can consumers borrow and spend?

A crash in the US economic system will hurt the world a bit, at first, but they'll do fine without it. Actually, after the world adjusts, many countries (china) will likely be better off.

QUOTE

and just out of curiosity, how old are you?


I'm 31. I've just recently become interested in this due to a friends interest in the markets and his advice.
I'm going to post back some links that may explain this batter than I can...plus It'll be more entertaining and save me some typing...


#5 Movax

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Posted 09 July 2008 - 04:56 PM

Some quick vids:

Many feature Peter Schiff. He is one man willing to speak the truth about the current economic situation. Most people laughed at him in previous years, but they are starting to take him more seriously.

The Day the Dollar sets
Dollar collapse:

Our Economy Right Now http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rLYph0J7vc

Great depression coming?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWPFXMEPJH8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_91pCe2jgHU

Schiff interview:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1_Yo2BGdUk

Tribute:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXGOq-ys9Js

More political vid by Don Harold:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPlvwNVOcDI



#6 signal-to-noise-ratio

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 02:24 AM

Read the book Are We Rome?: The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America http://www.amazon.co...A...53&sr=8-1It answers and expounds on alot of the topic you are talking about. Mainly the economy failing in the U.S.

Also check out my post in this forum "Its a logical question" for a spiritual cause and effect type deal.

When the U.S. does go because of the interconnectedness of the world economically it will cause a worldwide depression.

I don't for one second believe that the U.S. is an island. We are where we have gotten, meaning the success, because of our allies and friends (nations all over the world who for years had our back) who we nowadays look down upon. Its sad. But whether its a nation or an individual "pride causes a fall".

We have been blessed also by God(Jesus) but we have also turned our back on Him.

Doing both these things (turning our backs our on allies and Him) has allowed to happen what has, is and will happen. Cause and effect.

Anyway because of the interconnectedness of the world the collapse of the U.S. economy will have a domino effect.

There is talk of coming world war and a middle east conflict some of that is just common information. If the strait of Hormuz closes it will be very bad for world oil markets. For those living in the U.S. what is comforting to me is the fact many unrelated people who do not know each other have had visions it will recover. We will not be anihilated. But there are turbulent times coming.

It seems trite but take time to "stop and smell the flowers" have family get togethers. People will be able to ride this out by reaching out to family and friends. Take joy in little things like playing real chess on a table outside. If there is a high altitude Emp burst all our tech in the lower nationwide 48 will be offline for an extended period of time.

Keep in mind the world is a very turbulent place and like I said no nation is an island. So world events may Ie earthquakes and floods somewhere else will still effect us directly or indirectly even after the recovery.

Edited by signal-to-noise-ratio, 25 July 2008 - 02:26 AM.


#7 Movax

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 08:15 AM

The world will survive economically without the US after they start consuming. What does the US contribute to the world they can't do without? The only major thing I can think of is consumers. Right now the US is exporting inflation to the world. The world will do better off without that.

Possible outcomes:

-The US continues to bail out failing banks, and injects more 'stimulus' into the economy and inflates the dollar to worthlessness. Somewhere along this path, major currencies unpeg and speed up the dollars collapse. Euro likely the new reserve currency.

-The US stops bailing out banks, lets them fail, raises interest rates and saves the dollar. But causes a depression.

Of course there can be variations in between these two scenarios, but don't worry, the world will learn to trade without the US. The first scenario is much more likely and is the path that has been chosen for now.





#8 gronned

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 01:14 PM

Do you guys think the dollar will seriously collapse? That would be really bad.
I don't follow the market much, but I hope most will, soon, start trading with the Euro instead.


Bush has really turned your country to the shit. Even worse before leaving it now. He will be remembered as one of your worst presidents. If not the worst.

Edited by gronned, 25 July 2008 - 01:18 PM.


#9 bucko

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 02:31 PM

lol in the UK they like to tax us to death..I believe fuel duty tax is at 60%...and Road Tax has increased due to so called "going green"..I think all this green talk has in fact damaged the economy and increased food prices because most biofuel use's things like rape seed.

I think the continent that will most be affect is Africa...especially the northern countries like Darfor, it's a sad state of affairs...When America gets it's problem I think we not only have the cold but the flue as well..shame really.

PS I think the media are most to blame...they portray the green thing as a good thing, and don't look at the real problems behind it. And TAX wont solve the problem.

#10 twistedsymphony

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 03:44 PM

If you want to prepare yourself for the worst you need to releave yourself of as many outside dependancies as possible.

you have a job? you're dependent on them for money.
you have a home? you're dependent on the oil company for heat, and the electric company for electricity.
you need repairs on your home or car? you're dependent on the repair people to fix it for you.
you need food? you're dependent on the supermarket to provide you with food.
you need protection from unruly starving people? you're dependent on on the police.

what happens when those things go away?

I live in NH, in the winter the temperature can drop below freezing and never return, I need oil to heat my home... the last time they filled me tank it cost me $900 and I need to get it filled a few times a year. I'm getting ready to install some solar heat panels, this will drop my dependency on heating oil by over 80%

Doing that, I'm no longer dependent on the oil companies to provide heat for my home. I'm doing that first because that's the most volatile dependency I have right now.

I do my own home and auto repairs, I have the tools and skills I need to get those things done. These skills are also handy because if I were ever to lose my job I could find work doing any number of things...

"saving" your money would be foolish... all you're doing at that point is pooling your assets to be dependent on the bank or whatever form of currency you've chosen. Own a piece of land, a home, a car, skills and education or some other asset that will still have value in a crashed economy is worth a whole lot more than a pile of money, regardless of the currency.

....

Also consider how well prepared the people around you are as well. If the people in your city and state and stable enough to weather the hard economic times then you're much more likely to fair better as well. There are some places that are better to live than others.

There's a reason why the freestate project is in NH... I hate the weather here, but there's no other place in the US I'd rather live.

Edited by twistedsymphony, 25 July 2008 - 03:50 PM.


#11 Movax

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 09:32 PM

^ Those things you depend on have real value. If the dollar continues it's decline, those things cost more. Your savings become worth less even if the amount of dollars you have saved is the same.

Commodities that people consume, have true worth and that is why gas, food and related items are going up. Things people can do without, despite how nice they are, are declining. (Big vehicles, electronics - though electronics always tend to get a bit cheaper.)

Silver and gold have true worth and that is why I recommend looking into owning some, either through ETFs, mining stocks, or physical metals in your hand. They will always be worth some reasonable amount and be redeemable for a fair value in current dollars no matter where inflation goes. Physical metals are always the most risk free.



#12 lordvader129

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 09:50 PM

QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 25 2008, 01:08 PM) View Post

Silver and gold have true worth and that is why I recommend looking into owning some, either through ETFs, mining stocks, or physical metals in your hand. They will always be worth some reasonable amount and be redeemable for a fair value in current dollars no matter where inflation goes. Physical metals are always the most risk free.

again, goign back to my previous point this requires 2 things

1: there is a market for it

2: you can get to that market to sell it


the level of economic collapse you are anticipating will effectively destroy any market for anything not needed to survive, meaning youd have to leave the country for your gold and silver to be worth anything, and if you can do that when there is no economy in the US youd be better off doing it now and not even worrying about the dollar anymore

#13 Movax

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Posted 25 July 2008 - 11:43 PM

There doesn't need to be a market for it. What was used before fiat currency and accepted everywhere? Gold and silver.

Why did coins contain silver until the '60s? Because silver had value. It wasn't until money become too inflated that silver was removed. (A silver $0.25 coin would have had more silver in it than a quarter's worth).

I don't see why you think there needs to be a 'market'. If paper money because worthless, people will still need to use some form of money to trade beyond a pure barter system. Besides that, my point is gold and silver will HOLD their value. They are always in demand in some form or another and they will always have value. How much value is in a piece of paper with nothing backing it?

You may find this interesting:

http://en.wikipedia..../Liberty_Dollar


Edited by Movax, 25 July 2008 - 11:59 PM.


#14 lordvader129

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Posted 27 July 2008 - 08:44 PM

QUOTE(Movax @ Jul 25 2008, 03:19 PM) View Post

There doesn't need to be a market for it. What was used before fiat currency and accepted everywhere? Gold and silver.

gold will hold its value for a long time, but not forever if what you anticipate comes to pass, you arent positing a recession or depression, you posit the total economic collapse of the united states

what will hold value forever are items with practical value, so let me pose a question to you, both our families are starving, you have the last loaf of bread in town and i have a bar of gold, are you saying that will sell the only bit of food you have to get the gold? because i sure wouldnt, and this would be the situation in many urban areas in the future you envision

my great grandfather grew up in germany after WW1, the hyperinflation under the weimar republic is similar to what you seem to be anticipating here, gold was worthless to the average german at that time because you couldnt eat it, couldnt wear it and couldnt burn it





and ive seen the liberty dollar, its a scam, they arent selling you a fixed amount of gold or silver, they are basing the value of the liberty dollar on the value of the US dollar, and how much gold or silver that will buy

essentially they are counting on people not making note of "moveups" (they dont call it inflation so they can fool the suckers) and spending an "old" liberty dollar as if it were a "new" liberty dollar, its sort of like drawing a zero on a one dollar bill and then getting your little brother to give change for a 10

#15 Movax

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Posted 28 July 2008 - 04:50 AM

QUOTE(lordvader129 @ Jul 27 2008, 04:20 PM) View Post

ive seen the liberty dollar, its a scam, they arent selling you a fixed amount of gold or silver, they are basing the value of the liberty dollar on the value of the US dollar, and how much gold or silver that will buy



Whether their approach is correct is debatable, but I posted that information to show the interest is there, and faith in the US $ is diminishing. It's reported that there are/were over $20 million dollars in circulation.

As was said, we are in a global economy now. You really think it would be that difficult to trade in gold, in whatever form, for some inflated cash so you could go buy some bread?




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