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TGS: Kinect To Sell 3 Million, Extend Generation


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#1 Xbox-Scene

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 05:25 PM

TGS: Kinect To Sell 3 Million, Extend Generation
Posted by XanTium | September 16 12:25 EST | News Category: Xbox360
 
From gamasutra.com:


Greenberg is very bullish on Kinect, predicting three million sales this holiday season, globally.

"Our key indicators are feedback from retailers -- I think you'd be surprised at how sophisticated they are, and they really have the pulse of the market. They're looking at preorders, they're talking to customers.

"We're also done our own research. We believe this will be the biggest launch in our history, for Xbox. We will sell more Kinect sensors than we did [systems] at Xbox 360 launch."

"Our estimates that we will sell in excess of 3 million units this holiday," The company is spending "hundreds of millions" of dollars in marketing, "exceeding in what we did when we launched the original Xbox 360," says Greenberg.

The generation, at this rate, seems to be tracking longer. Of course Sony has always talked about a 10-year cycle, but so does Greenberg. "We do think that this generation is unique. We're treating the launch of Kinect as an entirely new platform launch, as almost a new generation. For us that does extend the product life cycle."
At this point in the Xbox 360's lifespan, he says, "we're five years in. We think we have another good five years-plus, but that remains to be seen -- but easily there's another five years' life."


Full Story: gamasutra.com






#2 Charbless

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 05:37 PM

I really hope the thing doesn't even sell 1.5million to shove it in ms face people are sick and tired of being ripped off this thing costs like 60-70 dollars to make and putting 150 tag on it is greedy.

#3 UT0PAL1N3

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 06:04 PM

really? companies mark up their products before they sell them?? oh, that must be how they make money. Come on, really, are we still having these conversations. ALL companies mark up product, that is how they make money. The TV that you play your 36o on had a markup. the car you drive had a huge markup, that is how businesses stay in business. at the same time, let's do the math, so it costs 50-70 to make, plus it launches with games (lets say it's shovelware like the Wii 20-30) that's $70-100 to manufacture, then shipping it to the retailers, retail mark up, development, marketing. Not a lot to work with after all that.

also, if you don't want it, don't buy it

uto

#4 sabbath_dude

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 06:19 PM

If they honestly expect to shift 3 million units this Christmas alone then they're totally out of touch with their customers. 3 million is optimistic for the entire lifespan of the product let alone a single shopping season IMO.

#5 BoNg420

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 06:21 PM

QUOTE(Charbless @ Sep 16 2010, 12:37 PM) View Post

I really hope the thing doesn't even sell 1.5million to shove it in ms face people are sick and tired of being ripped off this thing costs like 60-70 dollars to make and putting 150 tag on it is greedy.


The price will probably be high for about 6 or so months, depending on sales it could go down sooner then expected, but I wouldn't plan seeing it at $150 for to long. You do have to realize this isnt like the ripoff hard drives with a $30-40 drive in them and a $2 case, then they sell them for near $200. This is something they put a lot of R&D into. So they do have to pay for parts, pay for their R&D, pay their own employees, then the stores that sell it pay for it at a cheaper price, then have to make money to cover their overhead costs, building costs, employee costs, etc. I am not really defending them just saying, its like everything that is new, at first its costly and will greatly reduce in price over time.

Also if people are smart, you can buy almost anything online cheaper or somewhat cheaper, at least no tax. Lots of times you can find coupons for online stores and get some money off and save on products and get it tax free with free delivery.

#6 martsmall

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 07:08 PM

QUOTE(sabbath_dude @ Sep 16 2010, 06:19 PM) View Post

If they honestly expect to shift 3 million units this Christmas alone then they're totally out of touch with their customers. 3 million is optimistic for the entire lifespan of the product let alone a single shopping season IMO.



have you played the kinect ? i thought just like you then i spent time with it & i think ppl are gonna go mad for it this holiday , in fact id go so far to say that i reckon its gonna b a situation like the wii had & be the thing to get for christmas

#7 Charbless

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Posted 16 September 2010 - 09:40 PM

QUOTE(BoNg420 @ Sep 16 2010, 06:21 PM) View Post

The price will probably be high for about 6 or so months, depending on sales it could go down sooner then expected, but I wouldn't plan seeing it at $150 for to long. You do have to realize this isnt like the ripoff hard drives with a $30-40 drive in them and a $2 case, then they sell them for near $200. This is something they put a lot of R&D into. So they do have to pay for parts, pay for their R&D, pay their own employees, then the stores that sell it pay for it at a cheaper price, then have to make money to cover their overhead costs, building costs, employee costs, etc. I am not really defending them just saying, its like everything that is new, at first its costly and will greatly reduce in price over time.

Also if people are smart, you can buy almost anything online cheaper or somewhat cheaper, at least no tax. Lots of times you can find coupons for online stores and get some money off and save on products and get it tax free with free delivery.



There is no difference between this and what they do with harddrives infact you could even say they are more greedy with Kinnect because it's all in house atleast the harddrive had to come from other companies.

the price it sells for isn't to do with r&d companies will try and give the story that it does it doesnt that comes from other places and doesn't cost as much as they try to make out also this isn't new tech it's old the r&d would be software based.

store gets about 20-30% rest goes to ms and the price i mentioned 60-70 would be a person building it ms will mass produce so they could do it for 40-50 dollars cost per unit at the most.

if it sells at 150 it wont have price drop if it doesnt shift units it will this is how modern day business works.

i suggest you check out pach attack he breaks down the cost of games this will show you a basic understanding ms are very greedy.

Edited by Charbless, 16 September 2010 - 10:21 PM.


#8 Aldanga

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Posted 17 September 2010 - 03:24 AM

Would you like to cite your sources on the cost of developing Kinect, Charbless?

#9 SupaDawg

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Posted 17 September 2010 - 04:13 AM

QUOTE(Charbless @ Sep 16 2010, 09:40 PM) View Post

There is no difference between this and what they do with harddrives infact you could even say they are more greedy with Kinnect because it's all in house atleast the harddrive had to come from other companies.

the price it sells for isn't to do with r&d companies will try and give the story that it does it doesnt that comes from other places and doesn't cost as much as they try to make out also this isn't new tech it's old the r&d would be software based.

store gets about 20-30% rest goes to ms and the price i mentioned 60-70 would be a person building it ms will mass produce so they could do it for 40-50 dollars cost per unit at the most.

if it sells at 150 it wont have price drop if it doesnt shift units it will this is how modern day business works.

i suggest you check out pach attack he breaks down the cost of games this will show you a basic understanding ms are very greedy.


The fact of the matter is that, regardless of whether the individual technology is old (for the most part I would agree with that) or not, there is still significant engineering costs, not to mention testing costs, associated with the product.

Your claim of a retail markup of 20-30% isn't all that far fetched. You are correct when you say that this is "how modern business works" however, as the very basic supply and demand theory is generally accepted in the community, so this is nothing new.

$150 is not bad value. There are two groups that characteristically purchase goods at higher than market-accepted prices: Innovators and Early adopters. This will be no different a case than the Playstation 3, or the xbox360 console itself. A small minority will scoop up the units at launch and, if the product is as good as MS claims, the mass market will fall in line after that.

It is important to consider that these numbers were not just 'invented.' The numbers stated in the article are based upon complex sales forecasts, which I would place a lot more stock in than x-s personal opinions.

Do I personally think it will move 3million units during the holidays? Not really, and I would be surprised if it did.

Also considering that, in the hardware market, Kinect is going largely unopposed this holiday season, it is not hard to imagine that, were it marketed properly, Kinect could move a lot of units.

#10 readmore

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Posted 17 September 2010 - 03:52 PM

QUOTE(Charbless @ Sep 16 2010, 05:37 PM) View Post

I really hope the thing doesn't even sell 1.5million to shove it in ms face people are sick and tired of being ripped off this thing costs like 60-70 dollars to make and putting 150 tag on it is greedy.


I think the price is ok. I mean Guitar Hero was $150 and that was plastic and buttons.
I just don't like Kinect because the games look like crap and I don't have room in my apartment to actually use it. Plus my downstairs neighbors would really hate me.

To me the price is right, but the product itself just doesn't fit for me. For those who can actually use it (I predict a huge amount of returns after the holidays due to space/jumping issues), they will no doubt love it.

#11 swaneejuggalo

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Posted 18 September 2010 - 07:07 PM

The more I see from this the more I'm thoroughly impressed by it and $150 while high doesn't seem outrageous. I do hope it does really well in sales and attracts some good developer support because so far there is a lot to be desired on that front. It seems most the people who complain on here about it don't like the casual motion controlled gaming idea in the first place so this product really isn't intended for you.

#12 jamesnmandy

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Posted 19 September 2010 - 06:01 PM

i think it's realistic, i hear a lot of talk on the streets by non-techie friends about it too.....

one thing i DONT like about their projection is we wont see next gen hardware and games on our TV's for a very long time still, 5-6 years easily, if their projections and intentions hold up

#13 gsxr

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Posted 20 September 2010 - 08:28 AM

my feelings facts up till and on kinecting.

hmm just a year to two years ago i was following jonny lee chung and all his work with the wii mote and demonstrating many pos-bilites such as 3dof/headtracking and interative white board and all his projector wii and non wii based pprojects and read his thesis you say who cares whos jonny lee? well hold up a sec.. ill get to that. Also i now see texas instruments/dlp projectors with light pens and viewsonic and others as well... (jonny lee did interactive white board using projector, wii mote to track a calibrated planar screen with an infrared led in a pen tube housing for the light pen.

the man also created self aware projectors exploiting homography using only 20 gray binary patterns(flashed from the projector) and a usb board and four optical sensors(and ofcourse software to correct the warped image and then send it to an un modified projector(software is the key here) he geometricly warp any image onto a non planar service via a non moded projector, 20 gray binary patterns flashed from the pj. using software exploiting homography a usb board and four optical sensors at each point on the planar surface. he has stretched it to wireless now. the 20 gray patterns can also be used to paint a car model give it a sunroof all in real time...

this guy showed how using reflective tape and the wiimote it could track points. thus spawning the naturalpoint TrackIR 6d0f headtracker which is now upto version 5 and is supported in arma and games and really does track your head in supported sims.

also if i recall trackir naturalpoint people

geez i could go on and on.. needless to say this dude! is now employed by DUN DUN DUN

Microsoft
Researcher
Microsoft-applied sciences

google jonnylee for his site and business info lol... plain as day.. you can tell by the videos and projects he does this is a man who knows what gamers want...


So do i think the kinect will live up to the hype?! OH HELL YES!!!! I'm BITING, I'm BITING HARD! this guys a visionary. His videos, inventions and fact that MS scooped this guy and his ideas up give me comfort that this might live up well beyong any nintendo peripheral hype. the visions and utilizations are there. the eye candy will be there. Will we finally be in the box.

I've not been this excited since i got my first nes. heck the star wars game gave me great hope esp when the lady in the one e3 video chucks her sweater. this is no wiimote this is leaps and bounds and like i said look at all the influence the wiimote had for johnny


Also does anyone officaly know or did they say how the kinect does track the body? I heard they bought out the time-of-flight technique/guy/company? was just one quick thing i read i been busy so am not one hundred percent sure.. I know you where no ir reflective tape or ir leds etc etc nothing! so what technique does it use to track have they officialy said?

if anyone thinks im crazy or thinking too much into this please feel free to correct me after you learn about jonny's work but seriously please feel free to correct me i love to learn. i typed all this so i jumped around it was hard trying to put it all down at 2am and super tired lol.


ps.. i'mmmm the mannnn in the xbox? haha FIN

#14 gsxr

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Posted 20 September 2010 - 06:41 PM

also just to bring some more fact to my claims on the kinect. I back tracked and found this interview from johnny lee.


*"Lee said that he isn't responsible for anything seen in the E3 demo, however. "The part I am working on has much more to do with making sure this can transition from the E3 stage to your living room - for which there is an even larger team of very smart, very hard working people involved." For once, we can say that Microsoft has made the absolute best move possible. If you're designing a new video game interface that uses a camera or motion tracking of any kind, hire this person."*

mmm the force is strong with this onee haha.

if you've read it already, good for you.




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