Post Your Theories Here!, I got banned by doing a test. Options

[thuglord]

I uplugged my cable and removed the auto logon feature after reading about the firmware ban. I think connected ethernet cable, did the test, and was banned.

Doesnt this prove that the had me on "the list"? I was probably detected months ago. Before I got banned I was offline for about 1.5 weeks.

[thuglord]

I can say with 25% certainty that I believe it has something to do with the backup DVD. My friend and I both have the same firmware and the same console batch. He made sure all of his backups had stealth. I didnt.

I am banned.

He is not

[dumdum]

a friend of mine came up with this wierd theory so let me know what you guys think of it

how many of banned users had their xbox registered on xbox.com?

my friend and his brother both got their boxes the same day (about two weeks back) and we flashed them both with 5.2 myself, irony is that the box which got banned only had originals being played on it while the one which is not banned had mix of originals, original's backup and pirated games being played on it lol

the only difference what so ever we could think of is that the banned xbox was "registered" on xbox.com (you get this option on xbox.com to register your machine or something to that extent)

do you guys think this may have to do anything with all the banning? its a long shot but oh well ...

[thuglord]

That theory is kind of out there...way out there. I think it is the games. Most people that downloaded games probably got them all from the same place. That means same serial number.

[sofa king dumb]

I can say with 25% certainty that I believe it has something to do with the backup DVD. My friend and I both have the same firmware and the same console batch. He made sure all of his backups had stealth. I didnt.

I am banned.

He is not

now that you mention it my crackdown backup i used to dl halo 3 beta was not stealth...

[LesserEvil]

A couple of things:

1. Do any banned people have no hard drive?
- This might indicate that a hard drive is required for whatever method Microsoft is using to "detect" modded Xbox 360s
- This may also provide Microsoft with a means to store that information for later retrieval, BUT...
-- It's just as easy for Microsoft to upload the serial number info to their Live servers and record it in a central database.

2. Are all non-banned Z-codes 0000-0000? Does this change to 8015-190D after banning BECAUSE it indicates a banned unit, or do those getting banned have this code value BEFORE getting the ban?

3. The idea that "Stealth" plays a role is significant. If Microsoft notices that some backup sources from the internet are not "perfect" it would make it trivial to detect. This would be a "sure thing" - if indeed, however, we have unmodded Xboxes that have been banned, this would seem to poke holes in that theory.

4. Many speculate the Spring Update only includes the error message ("Violation of terms of service...") text, but the code was "inserted" some other way. Possibilities:
a. Previous update (but why wait until now? Perhaps they forgot the error message text?)
b. Some Xbox Live Arcade game or trial? (They just gave away a complete game, too)
c. One or more game updates?
d. Maybe Microsoft can just arbitrarily download a signed bit of code to execute on the fly? The capability was put there by the Fall update, and the checks have been done in some ordered fashion since then after the download code was complete?

5. Why are the bannings taking so long to "roll out"? Microsoft would have to have intentionally done this - but from a load balancing perspective, there's no reason to. The times people log onto Live are random and balanced enough to dothe check the first time they logged on, after the ban policy was initiated; the randomness of the timing probably indicates a purposeful disinformation tactic by Microsoft to throw off people, and lure more online to catch them. That last bit doesn't make sense. PRobably just a disinformation campaign.

6. MS28 drives have "Firmguard". This means Microsoft cannot read (or write) the firmware without actual hardware changes on the 360 - Mode 0800 and "Bad Flash" methods are impossible for the dashboard or, for that matter, any code on the 360 to perform. Microsoft would have to choose between catching everybody BUT MS28 users, or none at all with this method. As some people report MS28s getting banned, it is unlikely they can DIRECTLY detect the firmware change.

7. Drive speed - we don't really have enough information on this from people, but DVD+R DL discs play back at a different speed than "ROM" discs, for all but one variant of the Xtreme Firmware. This would provide an indirect method for discovery of "hacked" firmware - but it's unreliable, as original discs may be slowed as the laser pickup degrades with use. Maybe that's why unmodded Xboxes have been banned? Bad form if this is the case, Microsoft will get their pants sued off if they used this.

8. Mistress Cleo, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth, has been enslaved by Bill Gates (He and his people "bought her out"), sitting in Gates' basement by the Xbox Live servers pointing at users' IDs as a large band printer chugs out reports as users with hacked drives. This would explain the seemingly random occurrences of bannings.

9. The dashboard is able to detect when the system is tuned on, but the DVD is disconnected - indicating somebody is probably flashing the drive. Again, it's possible unmodded 360s might get caught in this dragnet, just from a routine glitch here and there.

10. Planted ISOs placed on torrents and usenet modified to make notations in a save file. Something as simple as an altered game ID. Release groups might want to double check by running a binary compare between release images and original games. Recording how many "wild" releases are different in any way form the originals could be revealing.

OK, that's all I can think of now. Have fun.

[LesserEvil]

Oh... and I should also mention... it's far too early to "know" what is happening. Any threads saying "I know why... blah blah" should get locked down. Nobody knows for sure yet.

I'm not currently banned, but:

1. I have been unplugged since getting the Spring Update and downloading several demos and games
2. I'm running 5.2A on my MS28, 20GB HD
3. Nobody here plays games against others on Xbox Live, except one - I played against somebody with the Lost Planet Online Demo, once.
4. Played crackdown, burned from original (I'd rather scratch a $2 dDVD+R DL than my original)
5. Never downloaded or played Halo 3 Beta.

My Z code is 0000-0000, but as I stated above, we don't know if the code changes because you are now banned, or if the code is 8015-190D BEFORE you get banned.

What I'd really like to see is somebody sniff the packets to Live when a user gets banned. Maybe even an ICS-style driver could be made to alter the serial number when connecting, to "unban" a machine, or disguise one that hasn't been banned yet?

[Hopeful]

I uplugged my cable and removed the auto logon feature after reading about the firmware ban. I think connected ethernet cable, did the test, and was banned.

Doesnt this prove that the had me on "the list"? I was probably detected months ago. Before I got banned I was offline for about 1.5 weeks.

Do you mean that you

1) unplugged live completely
2) flashed to original
3) flashed back to modded
4) did NOT put a game back in
5) Logged back into live, and then got banned?

If so, it proves it's the firmware itself being tracked, even if you're offline.

[dumdum]

well i am not banned on sammy 5.3c ms25

i checked status like 4 hours back, i do have condemned but havent played it for some time (cant recall before or after spring update)

i have went on live after spring break and had more than dozen games both on backup and originals

i have not downloaded the halo3 demo but i do have forza demo

while i was checking my status online i had a backup in my drive (which i forgot to take out and nearly had a heart attack lol)

[stupid2ass]

I just got insta-banned. An idiot friend of mine brought his f*****g HD and managed to update mine to the spring update whitout no cables connected since i only have a core an' memcard. connected tonite as a test and it fails with the bannination error code at the xbox live test.

to help out here's my stats:
360 Core with ms28 drive FW 5.2a
flashed out of the box manuf. 9/2006
to blow the marriage theory out of the water: flashed before ever connecting to Live
i stupidly had an xbox 1 game in the drive during the spring update process - that prolly did it.

no more live for me (i never even got to enjoy halo 3 unlike you other lucky mofos).

it did not connect to live the first time i plugged in the net cable after the update which was tonite

[Scriber]

A couple of things:

1. Do any banned people have no hard drive?
- This might indicate that a hard drive is required for whatever method Microsoft is using to "detect" modded Xbox 360s
- This may also provide Microsoft with a means to store that information for later retrieval, BUT...
-- It's just as easy for Microsoft to upload the serial number info to their Live servers and record it in a central database.

Consoles with no hard drive cannot connect to live, as there is no space to put the profile information..or any information from live for that matter

[wandc1]

Well I don't know if this will help anyone or not but I will tell you what I did. The last time I played on my xbox was on the 28th of april. I put in a copy just to make sure that I had burnt it right and then turned it back off. I go to turn it on friday may the 18th about three weeks since I last turned it on and it fails to log in. I hadn't download halo 3, updated to the spring patch or any other update. I turned my system on with NO game at all in my system and it doesn't connect. When I go to test my connection xbox live failed but it doesn't say anything when you look at more info, it is blank but my x y z codes are the same as the others I have read. What sucks is my live account was just renewed on the 22nd of April for another year. My system doesn't say banned anywhere on it or when I log into xboxlive.com. Hope maybe this can be of some help. By the way I also have a Hitachi 47 drive in my system.

This post has been edited by wandc1: May 20 2007, 07:44 AM

[Wilhelm_I]

Oh... and I should also mention... it's far too early to "know" what is happening. Any threads saying "I know why... blah blah" should get locked down. Nobody knows for sure yet.

I'm not currently banned, but:

1. I have been unplugged since getting the Spring Update and downloading several demos and games
2. I'm running 5.2A on my MS28, 20GB HD
3. Nobody here plays games against others on Xbox Live, except one - I played against somebody with the Lost Planet Online Demo, once.
4. Played crackdown, burned from original (I'd rather scratch a $2 dDVD+R DL than my original)
5. Never downloaded or played Halo 3 Beta.

My Z code is 0000-0000, but as I stated above, we don't know if the code changes because you are now banned, or if the code is 8015-190D BEFORE you get banned.

What I'd really like to see is somebody sniff the packets to Live when a user gets banned. Maybe even an ICS-style driver could be made to alter the serial number when connecting, to "unban" a machine, or disguise one that hasn't been banned yet?

My xbox has been modded straight out of the box in march 2007, never touched it after that.
I do only own a stealthpatched copy of Rainbowsix Vegas and Oblivion.
As we all read it me and my friends are waiting the whole time for the ban.
So I decided to do the scene a favour and so I am sniffing all packages whenever I turn on my 360.
Additionally I record my 360's screen with a capturecard.
So I am ready, now you can ban me M$ :-P
Your prussian Emperor
Wilhelm I
PS:Incase you think I am from M$ as I have only one post-> mail me Wilhelm_I@hush.ai

This post has been edited by Wilhelm_I: May 20 2007, 07:47 AM

[dieselmachine]

I'd also like to help out in whatever way I can. I am not banned yet, so I can packet sniff too. What program are you using to do this, and do I need to have the 360 plugged into my computer to use this, or can it somehow monitor the router traffic?

[LesserEvil]

Consoles with no hard drive cannot connect to live, as there is no space to put the profile information..or any information from live for that matter

Not true... memory cards work fine for this purpose. That's why there was a size limitation on XBLA games, and why the capacity has gone up for memory cards.