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When Do You Think The Ps3 Will Be Released In Usa? |
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| SigmaXIX |
Feb 26 2006, 01:37 AM
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QUOTE(Jinkz @ Feb 25 2006, 08:29 PM)  100% not this year, the hardware won't be finalised for ages, I expect a mid 2007 release.
I have to agree. This time last year, we had a very definite idea of the Xbox 360 specs, and some pretty good indications (pictures) of the finished product. I do not think people can really say they know what the PS3 is going to be about. A damning task will be to program for the proprietary "Cell" processors. It will be a different computing architecture from what computer scientists are used to, and how do you create an in-house SDK for distribution across 7 in-line processors? I also think it will take much much longer for the gaming industries to get the full capacity of "Cell", putting the release of games even farther out. At least MS and other developers could get the job done with some G5 Mac experience, well ahead of time. The delays in Blu-Ray, rumors of Japan-only online WA!PS3 serivices, hurdles in software programming, manufacturing capacity, and the questions about IF the PS3 will really ship with a HDD are just some of the difficulties I have in believing a "December 2006" launch-date. If we are "lucky", PS3 will have a holiday 2006 release in Japan. If things continue along the course of delays, feature-cuts, and balooning production costs, I say the US will not get a PS3 this year, whatsoever. Just imagine what type of bugs a PS3 will have, as unnecessarily complicated and "new-age" the technology is fueling that system. I doubt even Sony knows how to debug effectively with their "Cell" processor. Quarter 1 2007, at earliest.
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| The Bat |
Feb 26 2006, 03:54 AM
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My 2¢, which is mostly from info that drifts my way and guessing, says late 2006 for Japan at the earliest. Why?
For starters, Sony typically is a bit noisier in their promotion of the finished product when it's only months away. Sure, Sony is likely being quieter than usual right now, but there have been reports of Sony's third parties facing financial risks and losses because even they don't know when the PS3 will ship, or in what numbers. It's kind of hard to base sales figures of your 8 figure game when you don't know that much.
Retailers also need several months between when they find out exactly what they can order for their stock, and how many to order, and the time it actually hits their retail outlets. Factor in the typical delay between when Sony releases in Japan and when they release in the US, and a US Fall 2006 launch seems remote, at best. That is, unless they repeat MS's tactic of a global launch at year-end to get the '06 holiday sales, and face the lack of stock that goes with it.
But wait, there's more! Didn't we recently see the first demoes of the first high definition DVD players a little over a month back? The cheapest self-contained Blu-Ray player was $1,000, by a Sony third party. If Sony were to release a direct competitor to that player, which could also play the latest console video games, at half the price, don't you think that Sony third party would be more than a little pissed off?
Sony is currently the main player in this industry, commanding a rather large lead in sales and support over MS. In the coming months, we'll likely see the normal Sony tactics of overblown specs, with images of games in development, and a first glance at actual hardware instead of "artists conceptions", of such hardware as the console casing. Sony is likely banking on that lead to carry them through.
The actual launch hardware, and this is again 100% guesswork, might not have as many things bundled in with the console itself as what's currently believed. The cell processor, and the graphics card, and the Blu-Ray drive won't be cheap, and even subsidizing those costs with losses of hundreds of dollars per console may not cover it. In fact, I can picture the PS3 launch as being similar to the 360 Core system launch. The HDD will be a seperate component, and wireless controllers will be available as an extra, with wired controllers being the standard. Blu-Ray games will be playable, but the BIOS may be set up to not allow Blu-Ray movie playback without the purchase of an additional dongle, much like DVD playback with the first XBox.
And if you want those extras? Well, you'd have to purchase them from Sony and from Sony's licensed partners. And the approach may be a quasi-repeat of the movie playback which was build into the PSP, which Sony also sold initially at a loss of hundreds of dollars. In the same way that you had to pay $30 to watch a stripped down version of a $20 DVD movie on your PSP, I'm guessing that they'll sell the "missing" PS3 peripherals at a much higher cost than they cost to manufacture.
And if Halo 3 isn't ready by then, or even if it is, expect MS to counter with a price drop for the 360. It wouldn't surprise me if, as far as sales ratios go, we see a repeat of the Genesis/SNES days with the two leads trading the <2% sales lead a few times per year. And if Nintendo's gamble on their new styled controller and their retro library doesn't pan out, they'll be the next TurboGrafx.
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| KingViper |
Feb 26 2006, 07:10 AM
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Hmm.
MS is taking approx. $300 loss on each premium console sold.
If the PS3 really costs around $850 to produce, and they sell it at $400, they'll be losing $450 per console. Sony may have deep pockets, but they do not have as deep of pockets as M$. That means they are either going to drop hardware, or sell it for more, OR like we see with the 360, do what The Bat said, and sell all the accessories for an absurd amount. M$ makes like $35 per wireless controller, so if Sony sells wireless controllers, and a blu-ray adapter, and a harddrive, and software for online play, and Highdef cables for both of your outputs etc. etc. etc.
So, if they sell it at a higher cost, lets say...$450, plus if you want Blu-Ray playback you've gotta drop another $40, and you need another controller at least another $50, and you need a harddrive at $100, and what good would the console be without a $60 game, plus some highdef cables to even get HD (will they include them?) $30, we're lookin at like around $700+ just to get the damn thing up to par with 1 game.
Lets not forget sales tax on a $700 item. So, I've got the $400 Xbox 360 (maybe a price drop by then) with a plethora of games, media capabilities, online everything....why in the hell would I want a PS3, I dont care if they do come out with some nice games, I wont be buying it till its been dubbed the PSThree and has fixed any initial problems with blu-ray (because we would essentially be beta testing 1st generation blu-ray), officially dropped harddrive support for the second time, and changed the controllers from looking so gay.
Good job sony.
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| The Bat |
Feb 26 2006, 07:18 PM
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One more reason why Sony is likely experiencing a lot of head-aches these days is the upcoming Blu-Ray / HD-DVD battle. The New York Times has a fairly lengthy article on the battle at http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/business..._r=1&oref=login, and the various bumps that MS and Sony (among others, of course) face in the coming months. You'll have to use ** used to abuse XS time and again ** to get the login credentials. Btw, this doesn't mean by itself that one side will win or that the other will be decimated. But what it does mean is that Sony may be willing to go further than they otherwise would in order to help sustain the format. And if that means losses of over $400 per console sold, and releasing a smaller library of games barely past Beta form (and nothing else) at launch, they will. That would provide an instant large® base for the Blu-Ray format, even if most of those PS3s are only used for playing Blu-Ray movies. But in the process, they'd lose a lot of momentum and hype in the console wars. Like I said, it's one more reason why there's bound to be plenty of head-aches at Sony's corporate HQ. The PS3 likely will not have the sustained pre-launch buildup of the PS2, at this rate.
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