Merrill Lynch: Xbox 360 To Win Next-Gen Battle Through 2011 Options

[Xbox-Scene]

Merrill Lynch: Xbox 360 To Win Next-Gen Battle Through 2011 Posted by XanTium | November 15 15:02 EST

From gamasutra.com: [QUOTE] Yoshiyuki Kinoshita's, research analyst for Merrill Lynch, research note revealed: "We forecast respective market shares [in March 2011] of Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony's domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo's respective market shares." Kinoshita clearly believes that no one company will dominate all territories however, suggesting that Sony will still have 57% of the console market share in Japan by that date, with Nintendo's Wii at 39% and an unspecified small percentage for the Xbox 360. However, it is his prediction for the North America market that is most startling and perhaps debatable, with his suggestion Microsoft will have 50% market share by 2011, of while the PlayStation 3 has just 27% and the Nintendo Wii 23%. [/QUOTE] Read More: gamasutra.com

[xboxexpert]

Nice...

[C o s m o]

Interesting projections. I assume they've taken manufacturing concerns into account?

[Booker T]

Pretty bold prediction.

[twistedsymphony]

Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent

those are the percentages I like to see!

-Fairly even across the board meaning good competition and a good spread of 3rd party support.
-Sony not in the lead meaning they'll hopefully realize they're no so important that they can beat up their supporters the way they have.

This post has been edited by twistedsymphony: Nov 15 2006, 08:48 PM

[oxjeremy334]

Although, if Blu-Ray picks up some serious momentum, people may consider picking up a PS3 instead of a Blu-Ray player and a XB360...

[sidewinder33]

Those are some pretty controversial numbers hes spouting. 50% of the america market is a very bold statement. Granted Sony has been losing popularity, but 50% is huge. I do think his Wii numbers are correct though those bad boys are going to sell just because they are so cheap. I know I'll be getting one in the future.

[BasicAir]

I first read the article on IGN where it even says this analyst is Japanese. I find that the most striking about the article.

Anyway, I do believe MS will win the so-called "console war" -- Probably for most all the reasons this analyst considered. However, I think it's way too early with all the difficult varibles to consider to make these predictions -- Especially 5 years from now as this fellow does.

I would be very, very surprised if Nintendo captures that much overall market because I really honestly do believe that the Wii will essentially be a "GameCube 2" -- Nintendo hurt their reputation with the GameCube and I think that although the Wii will have huge success in the beginning that consumers will start to see the nunchucks as a big gimmick and will want a larger A/V upgrade from the GC.

I predict MS and Sony in a close one and two with Nintendo at a very distant 3rd by 2011. I bet my life on it.

[Achtung]

I think those are the most accurate predictions I've read as a overall market share, I could totally see those being very close to the actual numbers.

As for the 50% North american market share, I'd love to see it but I don't know thats a hell of a number.

[0794]

I predict MS and Sony in a close one and two with Nintendo at a very distant 3rd by 2011. I bet my life on it.

I agree with your predictions, but, man that is a risky bet...I just hope if you are wrong that nobody wants to collect...

[silentbob343]

Even if the PS3 "wins", has a larger market share, it still loses. Sony has around 70+% and they will not keep it. I have heard from others it will be very close with each maker in the 30s. Of course all of these are projections and subject to change at anytime depending on any number of factors.

[Kallstar]

First, i'd like to point out that i hate most predictions, and this one fails to take into account people owning multiple consoles since the market shares don't add up to more than 100%. With that said, these projections seem rather accurate to how i think it will turning out. give or take 5% in any direction.

[Mozbius]

Hmmm I don't know... I'm no Sony fanboy but I still have my doubts about those numbers... MS first in the current generation? That would be fun but I would be quite surprised also!

I mean I don't think that it's been taken in account that Japanese developers are among the best in the world (if not the best developers) and their souls are often sold to Japanese videogame systems (no matter how difficult that system could be for developping)... Considering that fact, if Japanese developers manage to churn out system seller like there's no tomorrow people will simply follow and buy the correct system to play those games.

My 2 cents? As much as I like MS ways I still believe that Sony will finish first but by a much more thin margin in front of MS. Nintendo will once again finish 3rd with a much better percentage of the market.

[epsilon72]

those are the percentages I like to see!

-Fairly even across the board meaning good competition and a good spread of 3rd party support.
-Sony not in the lead meaning they'll hopefully realize they're no so important that they can beat up their supporters the way they have.

I agree. One company with a huge advantage over the others = bad for gaming.

[kowrip]

I agree. One company with a huge advantage over the others = bad for gaming.

First off, I'm not biased towards PS3 or Xbox 360. I happen to own an Xbox 360. However, I agree with this prediction simply due to price. The first batch of PS3 consoles will sell out very fast due to the "hardcore" gamers. After the initial holiday rush, it will be a hard sell for the average person because of the ridiculous price. The average person doesn't know or care much about Bluray and all the other little "sweeteners" in the console. If the PS3 prices were closer to the 360 prices, then I would give Sony the edge once again. I think that Sony will have a long drought after the initial rush until they can drop the price of the console. And by then, I'm sure MS will have lowered its price as well. This will make it even MORE attractive with a lower price and a greater selection of games.