MI6: Gaming 2020 - The Top 5 Quotes Options

[Xbox-Scene]

MI6: Gaming 2020 - The Top 5 Quotes Posted by XanTium | April 10 00:05 EST | News Category: Xbox360

From gamasutra.com: [QUOTE] * 1. Peter Moore, EA Sports: "I think we have to look East for indications of where this business is going. We're going to have to practice creative destruction quickly..." As for the retail/console model being the future: "We're kidding ourselves." * 2. Alex St. John, Wild Tangent: "I think you'll see the console business is gone by [2020]... one reason is that there's a game which is the most profitable game in history, it's World Of Warcraft. More and more games will move to community models." * 3. Nolan Bushnell, NeoEdge: "Traditional banquets with gaming, in the 10th and 12th century always had food and drink with them... so the living room, I think, of 2020, will likely have some kind of interactive coffee table. There will probably be an internet connection to some PC." * 4. Kathy Vrabeck, EA Casual: "I think in 2020 we will not be making games accessible for the people we think of today... in 12 short years we've moved to 30% of the business being online and mobile? Is that a stretch to say it'll be 50% 12 years from now? I don't think so." * 5. Laurent Detoc, Ubisoft: "If we make things very accessible and enlarge the population, we will have a very diverse population... nobody in my office knows my mom as a consumer, but if she starts buying games they're going to have to... that's really not 2020, it's right now." [/QUOTE] Full Story: gamasutra.com

[metalcoat]

I don't think the console will be gone, people don't want big ugly desktops under there TVs. Do you hear me Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo?

[Tamim95]

* 2. Alex St. John, Wild Tangent: "I think you'll see the console business is gone by [2020]... one reason is that there's a game which is the most profitable game in history, it's World Of Warcraft. More and more games will move to community models."

The problem with the quote is that it assumes community based games are not possible in the consoles.

Plug in a keyboard, and may be a mouse, or an advanced version of both that can be operated without a stable surface underneath and you just turned it into a gaming PC...a better one from both a developer and consumer point of view. No more upgrading every year, everybody sees the game the same way, fewer cheaters...

And World of Warcraft is just one game on the PC that sold so much. May be a couple others. But look at console games...Halo, Metal Gear Solid, Mario, Gran Turismo, Tony Hawk, Resident Evil etc. They sell millions at each iteration. If you compare the total PC game sells and the console game sales since WOW came out I am very certain the consoles will outsell the PC by a huge margin. Heck...PS2 alone might just do it. Plus sports franchises, such as Madden, NHL typically sells more on consoles than on PC.

How I see is that PC will be a good platform for tech demos, to show off the latest and brightest every year. It would be a good platform for casual games too, games that you play when you take a break from work. Classic example...solitaire, minesweeper etc.

Finally, we can not predict the future. Most of the speculation that we make now will be of laughing matter when the time actually comes. Much like how you laugh now when you read how at predictions of the future from the 30s-40s. There will be unforeseen hardware changes that will change the market in unexpected ways. We just have to make sure we can adapt to the change quickly and make the best of it.

This post has been edited by Tamim95: Apr 10 2008, 07:21 AM

[Heet]

^^I guess your talking about a few years from now when the next ones come out and not 12 years from now as they are discussing because your viewing source wont even be directly connected to anything (set top etc..) other than power.


At least I dont think so.



In other words they wouldnt even try to sell you some huge box to put in your living room. Ok maybe sony.

This post has been edited by Heet: Apr 10 2008, 07:31 AM

[Arch0n]

* 1. Peter Moore, EA Sports: "I think we have to look East for indications of where this business is going. We're going to have to practice creative destruction quickly..." As for the retail/console model being the future: "We're kidding ourselves."

Not sure why we should look East here and he doesn't define how far ahead he means by future (12, 20 or more years?) BTW, the concept of "creative destruction" is rooted in Western European philosophy.

Microsoft's (and probably every other software vendor's if they think it over) dream is to have a generic box that will run apps, games etc on demand over the Net with various licensing agreements in effect. However I don't see this being viable in 12 years as the number of cunsumers able to access traditional retail chains will still dwarf those who can a) access and b)afford the level of networking infrastructure to go 100% (or close to as possible) virtual delivery for things like games.

In a way I would say this is (at least in contemporary terms) 'anti' Eastern as companies such as Sony and Nintendo are intriniscally tied to their hardware, particualry Sony where perfecting the physical machine is a core competency and drive.

Also, It's been western companies pioneering reduced physical delivery models for games - UO and of course the most succesful example, WoW.

Reminds me of how 'everyone was looking East (Japan) in the 90s to clone their business practices ... until their economy went into recession. A lot of academics, authors and HR gurus with egg on their face after that one LOL

[hardcandy]

I believe it will be an interactive "television" unit by 2020. No extra boxes just a cable connected to an interactive video display. All our games, news, movies, music, applictions,etc will be delivered via the cable company, telephone company, Wi-max, or wireless from transmitters on each corner.
The right to deliver all this content is what the big companies are fighting about now. Whoever controls the delivery controls the revenue stream.
I am hoping it is some iteration of Wi-max or wireless broadcasting units on each block. No need for any physical installation of any equipment in your home/business, just call up and get access and start using it.
So I do think the consoles will be gone and the PC will be gone-replaced by a interactive video/audio/data reciever. Sort of extending the concept of a cable card a lot further.

[twistedsymphony]

Damn I had an invitation to MI6 wish I had the time to actually go... ah well... maybe some other conference...


As for these quotes... I think these people are kidding themselves.

1. People are moving away from PC gaming in droves, just because the single "most popular game" is still on PC doesn't change the fact that most consumers would much rather sit on their couch, or game on the go than sit at their computer. Also, as other's have mentioned, you don't NEED a PC to play a game like that.

2. Just because WoW is popular doesn't mean all games can or even should move in that direction. Despite the overwhelming popularity of Xbox Live all but the most popular games are completely devoid of players online... Similarly there are dozens of games that have tried to do what WoW does and most of them have failed to come close to the same popularity.

For all intents and purposes WoW is an anomaly... a very profitable one but an anomaly none the less.

3. The market will not survive if it all goes the way of WoW... Dont these people realize that you either play WoW or your play everything else... 90% of the people who play WoW NEVER PLAY OTHER GAMES... and the draw of any larger social based game is that you're playing the same one that everyone else is playing... because their worthless if you play alone.

Even if another MMO comes out that bests WoW in every aspect, it still has little hope of selling as well because it doesn't have an existing community and WoW players aren't going to give it up to play another game.... In all honesty you don't have to be very smart to see that MMO games are similar to sites like WoW and Facebook... there are a handful of popular ones and everything else is left in the dust. These games are popular for the sake of being popular, if you flood the market you'll have one or two successes and a whole lot of major failures.

4. Nevermind the fact that anyone who isn't playing an MMO right now... probably has no interest in playing MMOs in the future. Online games can be fun but the most complaints I see about games on the market right now are single player experiences that are getting short changed for multiplayer features that no one is interested in playing...

5. I think the REAL future is in co-op gameplay applied linear episodic content. and I think that belongs on a console... Anyone shooting for the WoW cash-cow is kidding themselves. Think Gears of War campaign where you can play solo or a co-op parter (or 3) can jump in at any time... then imagine that once a month they'd release a download pack that added 3-4 more hours of campaign and progressed the story.

THAT is what I think the future SHOULD hold if they actually want to make money in the real world.

This post has been edited by twistedsymphony: Apr 10 2008, 05:14 PM

[smartygre1]

I guess none of those folks have heard about the Wii. The best selling console (and cheapest) has the least powerful hardware. But everyone can play it.

Not everyone can (or wants to) play WoW, that fact won't change.

This post has been edited by smartygre1: Apr 10 2008, 06:07 PM

[hardcandy]

Damn I had an invitation to MI6 wish I had the time to actually go... ah well... maybe some other conference...
As for these quotes... I think these people are kidding themselves.

1. People are moving away from PC gaming in droves, just because the single "most popular game" is still on PC doesn't change the fact that most consumers would much rather sit on their couch, or game on the go than sit at their computer. Also, as other's have mentioned, you don't NEED a PC to play a game like that.

2. Just because WoW is popular doesn't mean all games can or even should move in that direction. Despite the overwhelming popularity of Xbox Live all but the most popular games are completely devoid of players online... Similarly there are dozens of games that have tried to do what WoW does and most of them have failed to come close to the same popularity.

For all intents and purposes WoW is an anomaly... a very profitable one but an anomaly none the less.

3. The market will not survive if it all goes the way of WoW... Dont these people realize that you either play WoW or your play everything else... 90% of the people who play WoW NEVER PLAY OTHER GAMES... and the draw of any larger social based game is that you're playing the same one that everyone else is playing... because their worthless if you play alone.

Even if another MMO comes out that bests WoW in every aspect, it still has little hope of selling as well because it doesn't have an existing community and WoW players aren't going to give it up to play another game.... In all honesty you don't have to be very smart to see that MMO games are similar to sites like WoW and Facebook... there are a handful of popular ones and everything else is left in the dust. These games are popular for the sake of being popular, if you flood the market you'll have one or two successes and a whole lot of major failures.

4. Nevermind the fact that anyone who isn't playing an MMO right now... probably has no interest in playing MMOs in the future. Online games can be fun but the most complaints I see about games on the market right now are single player experiences that are getting short changed for multiplayer features that no one is interested in playing...

5. I think the REAL future is in co-op gameplay applied linear episodic content. and I think that belongs on a console... Anyone shooting for the WoW cash-cow is kidding themselves. Think Gears of War campaign where you can play solo or a co-op parter (or 3) can jump in at any time... then imagine that once a month they'd release a download pack that added 3-4 more hours of campaign and progressed the story.

THAT is what I think the future SHOULD hold if they actually want to make money in the real world.

Sort of like an interactive movie- where we are one of the actors and other "actors" can join in. Think they'll have Google Adsense inserted? I bet they will. "Click on here if you need a new plasma cannon from Toys'R Us".

[kowrip]

5. I think the REAL future is in co-op gameplay applied linear episodic content. and I think that belongs on a console... Anyone shooting for the WoW cash-cow is kidding themselves. Think Gears of War campaign where you can play solo or a co-op parter (or 3) can jump in at any time... then imagine that once a month they'd release a download pack that added 3-4 more hours of campaign and progressed the story.

THAT is what I think the future SHOULD hold if they actually want to make money in the real world.

I definitely would like to see more co-op friendly games. My friends and I used to love playing the Ghost Recon and Rainbow Six games cooperatively over Xlink Kai. It was so much fun having to work together to beat each level. I'd like to see more of this. It seems like nowadays everybody is into the kill-respawn death match multiplayer we see in the FPS games nowadays.

[bucko]

I hope in 2020 new arcade games aren't all 800 points so you don't have to buy 1200 points or what ever it is.

[Betadog]

i will point out ..... Another downfault of wow being the future is the buisness model will not work on all consumers... You would not catch me paying 50 bucks for a game then 10-15 per month to play that 1 game.If the game was free and 15 bucks provided a service to that and other games then fine....
I wouldnt pay that price per month to play any game...

Hell even microsoft has made live free to play (sure you pay when ya want new content but so you should)

I dream of a day when sony nintendo and ms all sit down and design a console.... let JVC ,RCA and all the others scrap it out for consumers to buy there version of the console (this would make consoles WAY cheaper... )

Then MS , Sony , Nintendo can scrap it out in online services and quality games... the things they actualy make money on.

just my 2 cents

[twistedsymphony]

you've got some bad info and some flawed logic...

You would not catch me paying 50 bucks for a game then 10-15 per month to play that 1 game.If the game was free and 15 bucks provided a service to that and other games then fine....

WoW is free to download, but you have the option to buy it in the store with some extras and a few months worth of "service" included for $40-$50

Hell even microsoft has made live free to play (sure you pay when ya want new content but so you should)

eh... nope Live is still pay to play... has never been free, and its not looking like it will be any time soon.

I dream of a day when sony nintendo and ms all sit down and design a console.... let JVC ,RCA and all the others scrap it out for consumers to buy there version of the console (this would make consoles WAY cheaper... )

Then MS , Sony , Nintendo can scrap it out in online services and quality games... the things they actualy make money on.

They tried that once before... it was called the 3D0 where the 3D0 copany just owned the design and licensed it to Panasonic, Goldstar, Sanyo and a few other companies. Heck Even the Sega Saturn was outsourced to 3rd party manufacturers in Japan...

The problem is it actually makes the consoles MUCH MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE...
why? You answered your own question "MS , Sony , Nintendo can scrap it out in online services and quality games... the things they actually make money on." These companies sell the consoles at a loss because they're so damn expensive to manufacture, they can afford to sell them at a loss because they make the money back selling games, accessories and services.

Do You honestly think 3rd party manufacturers are going to be able to sell consoles cheaper? Why? just look at Blu-Ray, most stand alone players are less expensive to manufacture than the PS3 but they cost $800-$1200 to consumers... the only reason the PS3 is cheap is because Sony is taking a hit because they make it back up in games.

you push consoles to 3rd party manufacturing where they have to turn a profit and you'll start seeing consoles launch at $1500-$2000 at pop... because they have no other way to make money than to charge more for the console.

This was why the 3D0 was such a colossal failure... it was too damn expensive, heck it pretty much had EA Games for it's first party titles and still couldn't stay a float.

[ausmods]

They tried that once before... it was called the 3D0 where the 3D0 copany just owned the design and licensed it to Panasonic, Goldstar, Sanyo and a few other companies. Heck Even the Sega Saturn was outsourced to 3rd party manufacturers in Japan...

The problem is it actually makes the consoles MUCH MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE...
why? You answered your own question "MS , Sony , Nintendo can scrap it out in online services and quality games... the things they actually make money on." These companies sell the consoles at a loss because they're so damn expensive to manufacture, they can afford to sell them at a loss because they make the money back selling games, accessories and services.

Do You honestly think 3rd party manufacturers are going to be able to sell consoles cheaper? Why? just look at Blu-Ray, most stand alone players are less expensive to manufacture than the PS3 but they cost $800-$1200 to consumers... the only reason the PS3 is cheap is because Sony is taking a hit because they make it back up in games.

you push consoles to 3rd party manufacturing where they have to turn a profit and you'll start seeing consoles launch at $1500-$2000 at pop... because they have no other way to make money than to charge more for the console.

This was why the 3D0 was such a colossal failure... it was too damn expensive, heck it pretty much had EA Games for it's first party titles and still couldn't stay a float.

Exactly right... Couldnt be said better.