Xbox 360 Will Fall to Third Place Thanks to Japan, says Pachter Options

[Xbox-Scene]

Xbox 360 Will Fall to Third Place Thanks to Japan, says Pachter Posted by XanTium | June 30 00:17 EST | News Category: Xbox360

From industrygamers.com: [QUOTE] As part of an absolutely massive 210-page report from Wedbush Morgan Securities on the future of the video game industry, analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that Japan will be the Achilles heel for Microsoft, enabling Sony's PS3 to overtake Xbox 360 on the global market. Wii, however, will maintain its leadership role until the end (with a little help from a new "Wii HD"). "We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015. Although Microsoft's Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan. We expect the Wii to capture 49% share of the U.S. and European market by the end of 2009, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29% and the PS3 at 22%. By the end of 2011 (the extent of our current forecast), we see Nintendo 'winning' the console war by maintaining its share, with 48% of this market. We expect Sony to pull even with Microsoft, each with 26% market share. Notwithstanding the projected finish, we truly believe that all three manufacturers should be considered 'winners', with Microsoft selling twice as many Xbox 360s as Xboxes and building a robust Xbox Live business, and with the other two companies generating significant profits from their respective shares. These estimates do not include console sales in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo with over 65% market share through 2011." [/QUOTE] Full Story: industrygamers.com

[tbb033]

If Patcher said it, you can bet it won't happen.

[g8crapachino]

What a joke. A 210-page report that got summed up in 1 short sentence. Pachter sure blows alot of hot air.

He's probable just trying to prove his worth in this down economy. A guy who makes a living by guessing the future is probable sweating alot about his job these days.

This post has been edited by g8crapachino: Jun 30 2009, 05:50 AM

[jdsony]

Ok...

1) What WII HD? It's rumour so shutup.
2) What happens in Japan doesn't change what the rest of the world thinks. Honestly Japan is becoming less and less relevant. I use to be a die hard Japan developer fanboy and while some of them still make great games most of the new up & coming indie developers are mostly from Europe and NA. Also Japan seems to make a lot of games specifically for their own market because no one else would be remotely interested due to cultural differences.

[DarkDyviniti]

We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015

who cares? Xbox 720 will be out by then.

[LootinGraves]

who cares? Xbox 720 will be out by then.

And no doubt it will allow MS to continue holding its title for "Highest Fail Rate on a Console"

[DarkDyviniti]

And no doubt it will allow MS to continue holding its title for "Highest Fail Rate on a Console"

Well... What do you expect, when a "software" company releases hardware? lol

Even still, 2015 will be near the end of the 360's and PS3's lifecycle.

[Evtrek]

We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015

who cares? Xbox 720 will be out by then.

Why do you people insist on calling it the 720. Thats not what they are going to call it so why are you.

How about the next xbox!

[ca102455]

Well they must fear the 360 pretty bad if they produced a 210 page report on why Japan will only buy a PS3

This post has been edited by ca102455: Jun 30 2009, 09:44 AM

[sinister slipknot]

Why do you people insist on calling it the 720. Thats not what they are going to call it so why are you.

How about the next xbox!

And what if they just happen to call it that? There's nothing saying they won't, although it does seem unlikely.

Pachter's an idiot, i'd believe what my 4 year old niece says about the video game industry more than him.

[Charbless]

I don't understand what he is trying to say about blu-ray because it's cheaper now to buy a blu-ray player and a 360 then just a ps3 so in 2015 i would think a new format will be lined up to come out or blu-ray players will be like £30.

Japan is not really a big loss any more EU and America are the big targets if successful in both them territories you will win.

WiiHD who cares

[Martinchris23]

Translation: 'We've been wrong before but never 210 pages wrong, so here it is'.

[BasicAir]

Why do you people insist on calling it the 720. Thats not what they are going to call it so why are you.

How about the next xbox!

It's a quick and easy way to say/type "the next Xbox".

But anyway, I agree with most here. Japan IS becomig less and less significant in the console wars. Is it still an important territory? Sure. Is it anywhere near as important as NA? No, but it used to be.

The single most important market for any product is going to be the largest market and everyone knows NA is the largest market.

Even in Japan, Sony is struggling right now with their PS3.

By 2015, as most have pointed out, MS will definitely have a new console by then as will Sony anyhow. They both hold on to the "10 year cycle" claims but they really mean they will keep supporting those consoles through the 10 year mark, or so says the claim. They'll both be deep into their next consoles by then, and at that point, in 2015, the 360/PS3 won't even matter anymore.

If MS is first to market again this next console generation (and they are definitely shaping up to be), and they release a console that's cheaper than Sony's next console, I think MS will dominate Sony yet again. The developer support will still be there for the next console generation for MS, so to me it'll all be about price point for the hardware and who's first to market. There are other factors, obviously, but to me these are the most important ones.

[Mr N]

I really don't get it. The Xbox 360 is cheaper and has a much better library of games than the PS3 ("better" meaning more popular). Why does anyone think the PS3 is going to win? Because it has Blu-Ray? Blu Ray is a waste of time for a lot of people who don't have HD TVs (including myself). Sure, Blu-Ray has the larger capacity for games, but some of the best games I've ever played (read: TLoZ:OoT) were on the Nintendo 64, whose cartridge-based games were limited in size compared to the PSX. Until HD is the standard in every home, you don't necessarily need 50gb to make a good game.

Obviously price is a huge part of this too. The Xbox 360 is the cheapest console on the market. The Wii's relatively low price ($250 in my area vs X360's $200) plays into it's success in a big way as well. When you factor in the fact that the Wii is both a novelty and a haven for casual gamers and the Xbox 360 is the mainstream "popular console" with celebrities like (dumbass) Soulja Boy essentially giving Xbox 360 free advertising to millions of his fans, you realize that your average person might see the PS3 on the shelf at Wal-Mart and wonder "why would I buy this?"

Just my opinion.

[krawhitham]

Patcher? Is this the same Patcher that blasted the PSP go as a complete "rip-off" and then 2 days later rescinded the "rip-off" comment and claimed it was a good value after Sony told him to step in line?

Now he "thinks" Sony will win the war, HMMMMM